Effects of climate change on ice cover in lakes in Europe – future scenarios

Climate change represents one of the most important threats for global lake ecosystems. Lakes are a very critical natural resource that are sensitive to these changes. (Iestyn Woolwa R., 2020; ACIA 2004). Air temperature is considered to be the dominant variable driving lake-ice phenology (Williams S.G. and Stefan H.G., 2006; Miętus M,  2006).  Global surface air temperature has increased by close to 1.3°C since the pre-industrial era. The average rate of temperature increase, according to ERA5, is 0.20°C per decade from 1979 to 2023 (Copernicus, 2024).

The expected effects of climate change will affect most of the physical parameters of lakes, including also the duration and thickness of ice cover (Rosenzweig C., 2007; Dibike Y. et al. 2024).The aim of this speech is to present selected effects of climate change on ice cover and introduce the impacts of climate change on the duration of ice cover on lakes in Europe. The outined scenarios are developed for the years 2071-2100 and are based on daily averages of air temperature obtained from high resolution climate change scenarios prepared by the PRUDENCE project (Nõges T. et al. 2009).

According to Nõges T. et al. 2009  there will be a noticeable increase in European winter temperatures accompanied by a visible extension of the ice-free period. The largest ecological changes will be expected in lakes, which at present have ice cover in most winters and will be mostly not covered by ice in the future. It is predcited the regions in Europe, which will experience the biggest  and most significant changes in ice cover duration (‘hot spots’) will extend from Central to Eastern Europe.

To sum up, lakes are regulators of environmental change, the understanding of their resistance, resilience, and responses to environmental change is crucial to their effective management (Williamson C.E. et al., 2009; Sommaruga R.; 2001). Developing models/scenarios concerning physical characteristic of lakes in Europe are very crucial to develop climate change impact indicators on ecological water quality of lakes (Nõges T. et al. 2009).