SCORE project partner from IST have published a paper in Atmosphere. It is available in open access.
Abstract
This study examines exceptional maximum temperature (Tmax) events in mainland Portugal (1980–2024) using ERA5-Land reanalysis data at 1012 locations. To assess changes in the occurrence and temperature excess of exceptional events across two 22-year subperiods (or phases), percentile-based thresholds were adopted. An inventive severity heatmap is used to illustrate exceptional Tmax changes between the two phases, which constitutes an addition to climate change research. Locations are categorised in the heatmap according to whether they experienced (i) more occurrences and more temperature excess, (ii) more occurrences but less temperature excess, (iii) fewer occurrences but more temperature excess, or (iv) fewer occurrences and less temperature excess. From the historical (1980–2002) to the contemporary (2002–2024) phase, results indicate a significant increase in the severity of extreme heat, particularly in central and southern Portugal, with over 90% of locations exhibiting a rise in exceptional event occurrences. While the Student’s t-test indicated significant differences in both occurrence and temperature excess between the phases, Sen’s slope estimation showed steady upward trends. The results point to crucial regions in the interior and southern Portugal that have warmed the most, posing growing threats to agriculture, human health, and water resources. Although slight cooling trends were observed in a few northern and central coastal regions, the overall pattern highlights an increase in extreme heat. This research is particularly relevant given the recent changes in exceptional Tmax identified in Portugal, aligning with broader climate change patterns and trends.
References
Title: Red-Hot Portugal: Mapping the Increasing Severity of Exceptional Maximum Temperature Events (1980–2024)
Authors: Luis Angel Espinosa and Maria Manuela Portela
Cite as: Espinosa, L. A., & Portela, M. M. (2025). Red-Hot Portugal: Mapping the Increasing Severity of Exceptional Maximum Temperature Events (1980–2024). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050514
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